Three numbers that tell the story of Broncos-Ravens: How bad is it for Denver’s offense?

DENVER — Another week, another meager offensive output for the Broncos.

So, let’s start there. Because the continued offensive struggles remain the dominant cause of the Broncos’ 3-9 performance, which has them two games clear at the basement of the AFC West.

Put it this way: The Broncos are closer to having the slot that would be the No. 1 overall pick than they are to third place in their own division. They sit 1.5 games ahead of the Houston Texans … but two games back of the third-place Las Vegas Raiders.

And of course, the Broncos don’t have the first-round reward of such a rotten season.

Still reading?

Let’s dive in …

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32.8

That is the number of points per game the Broncos offense must score to match the output of the 2021 offense under then-coordinator Pat Shurmur.

Denver’s offense accounted for 19.3 points per game last season. When factoring in return touchdowns — of which the Broncos had one, on a Pat Surtain II pick-six against the Chargers — the Broncos averaged 19.7 points per game, which ranked 23rd.

Shurmur said last year that the only analytics to which he paid attention were “points and wins.”

Pat Shurmur is asked about what stats from the “number crunchers” are relevant to him.

His answer, presented without comment.

“Just points — and wins. The important thing is to win, and then certainly, when you score points. Because we’re all charged with scoring points … pic.twitter.com/gXotbLn8iN

— Andrew Mason (@MaseDenver) December 16, 2021

“We had nine drives the other day and we scored on six of ’em,” he said last Dec. 16, referring to the Broncos’ 38-10 win over the Detroit Lions four days earlier that pushed them to 7-6 and squarely in the playoff hunt. “I think that’s pretty good, for the numbers guys.”

Denver had more points in that single game against Detroit than it has had in the last three outings combined.

No one in Broncos Country thought that by December, people would be pining for the salad days of Shurmur. But here we are.

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Minus-2.06

That is Broncos’ the drop-off from the first half to the second half in terms of average per pass play in Sunday’s loss.

This is typical of the Broncos; they average 2.29 fewer yards per pass play in the second half this season than in the first half.

In eight of 12 games — including five of the last seven — the Broncos averaged fewer yards per pass play in the second half than the first half. Their rate of first downs earned also decreased in five of the last six games, although the Broncos’ first-down rate was slightly better after halftime Sunday — one first down earned every 4.2 plays compared with one every 5.2 plays before halftime.

They have the final drive to thank for that; two of three plays in those desperate final seconds moved the chains. Prior to that, their second-half move-the-chains rate was worse: one of every 6.0 plays.

And of course, there’s the point disparity. The offense accounted for 102 first-half points. In the second half, it has 62.

“I don’t think those numbers are good for even the first half,” Broncos coach Nathaniel Hackett said.

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AND FINALLY …

3-13

That is the Broncos’ record in their last 16 games. Denver has the worst record of any team over that stretch.

But it goes deeper than that.

The Broncos have not had a worse 16-game stretch since the AFL-NFL merger.

Their 3-13 run is tied with a series of 16-game stretches between 2009 and 2011. But a difference between those 3-13 runs and this one is the lack of offense. In those stretches, the Broncos scored between 338 and 345 points per 16 games — putting the Broncos on an average of just over 21 points per game.

These Broncos have 226 points in their last 16 games — a meager 14.1-point average.

What’s more, Denver must score at least 16 points against the Chiefs next Sunday just to match the worst 17-game output in club history. Another 9- or 10-point game — of which the Broncos have had four in the last eight games and three of the last four — and these Broncos will stand alone with the worst output of any 17-game stretch in club history.

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