What three games for each AFC West team could decide the division?

Everyone in the AFC West plays each other — twice. And this year, each team in the division will see all the clubs from the AFC South and NFC West cross their paths.

Those inter-divisional battles represent an octet of contests that will include five games against teams that had winning records last year — including a No. 1 conference seed (Tennessee) — and both of last year’s NFC Championship Game participants (San Francisco and the Los Angeles Rams).

That is 14 games in total.

But it is the other three games on each team’s schedule that could make the difference between first and last place in the tightly-compressed AFC West. For the Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs and Raiders, these games are:

• At an AFC North team
• A home game against an AFC East team
• At an NFC South team

The teams each AFC West club faces are based entirely on where they finished in the division last year. The first-place finisher faces three other first-place teams, and so on.

And this favors the Broncos … but with one catch.

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DENVER BRONCOS

• vs. New York Jets, Nov. 20
• at Carolina Panthers, Nov. 27
• at Baltimore Ravens, Dec. 4

Average 2021 record of those opponents: 6-11
Average ESPN FPI ranking for 2022 (0.0 is average): minus-5.7

Usually, a trio of fourth-place teams for a team with a top-10 starting quarterback means that you can bank on three wins. But the AFC North in 2021 was so stacked that a late fade by Baltimore after Lamar Jackson’s season-ending injury sent them all the way into last place. Further, the Broncos are 3-7 all-time in Baltimore — including a 1-6 mark against the Ravens.

But the games against the Jets and Panthers represent two of the most winnable games on Denver’s 2022 slate. Per ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Jets are the easiest club on the schedule of any AFC West team, boasting a minus-12.8 mark that even ranks below the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars.

In a quirk of the scheduling gods, the Broncos get these games in a three-week, late-autumn span. The Jets-Panthers fortnight represents the only part of the schedule in which the Broncos could conceivably catch their breath. For the Broncos, winning those games would be like holding serve in tennis. It’s what you’re supposed to do. If they don’t, they’re chasing.

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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

• at Tampa Bay, Oct. 2
• vs. Buffalo, Oct. 16
• at Cincinnati, Dec. 4

Average 2021 record: 12-5
Average ESPN FPI ranking for 2022: plus-6.0

All three of these games are currently slated to go to massive audiences — the Bucs on Sunday Night Football and the Bills and Bengals in late-afternoon windows on CBS. In the case of Chiefs-Bills, CBS doesn’t even have another game to broadcast in that time slot.

This trio of games is terrific for fans who just want to kick back and watch — including Broncos supporters, since their favorite team does not play opposite any of these showdowns. But it’s bad news for the Chiefs, who absorbed a beatdown from Tampa Bay in their last duel (Super Bowl LV), lost twice to the Bengals in a six-week span last winter and will host a Buffalo side determined to exact revenge for last January’s overtime playoff loss.

If Kansas City goes 3-3 in divisional play and 1-2 against these powerful defending division champions, the Chiefs will need to go 6-2 in their other games — which include last year’s Super Bowl champions (Los Angeles Rams), the No. 1 AFC seed (Tennessee) and two other playoff teams (Arizona and San Francisco) — to feel good about their postseason chances.

Should the Chiefs make their eighth consecutive playoff appearance and ninth in the 10-season Andy Reid era, there will be no doubt that they earned it.

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LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

• at New Orleans, Oct. 30
• New England, Dec. 18
• at Pittsburgh, Dec. 25

Average 2021 record: 9-8
Average ESPN FPI ranking for 2022: minus-2.1

Two of the three Raiders second-place opponents were in the postseason last year. However, the Patriots and Steelers quickly marched home, losers on wild-card weekend by an average of 25.5 points.

This trio of opponents might be the hardest to assess of any of this AFC West quartet. Will Mac Jones make a second-year leap without Josh McDaniels whispering in his ear? Was the 14-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio of Jameis Winston prior to his torn ACL last year a fluke? The Saints are betting that it’s not, bringing him back while continuing their credit-card spending that currently has them $58.1 million over next year’s projected salary cap, according to OvertheCap.com.

Pittsburgh could be better than most think, despite a minus-7.5 current FPI that is 26th in the league. Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season in 15 previous campaigns as head coach; he even coaxed a .500 campaign in 2019 out of a team that started Mason Rudolph or Devlin “Duck” Hodges at quarterback for 14 games. Given that experience, starting Mitchell Trubisky — if Kenny Pickett isn’t ready — doesn’t seem so bad. The Chicago Bears had a 29-23 record (including playoffs) in games that Trubisky started for them.

It’s not hard to envision the Raiders getting more than they bargained for from these divisional runners-up. A 1-2 record in these three games could leave them with their noses pressed against the playoff glass in January.

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LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

• at Cleveland, Oct. 9
• at Atlanta, Nov. 6
• vs. Miami, Dec. 11

Average 2021 record: 8-9
Average ESPN FPI ranking for 2022: minus-3.2

Timing could be everything for the Bolts. If the NFL gives Deshaun Watson a six-game suspension — the same as the one issued to Ben Roethlisberger to open the 2010 season — then the Chargers will get the break of facing Cleveland understudy Jacoby Brissett, and the potential toughest game of these third-place finishers might not look so daunting. Los Angeles should have enough defense and Justin Herbert sorcery to win against the Falcons and Dolphins.

Even with the variables of Watson in Cleveland and Tyreek Hill in Miami, it would be a stunner if the Chargers are any worse than 2-1 in these games.

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The AFC West is at its most tightly compressed spot since 2011. But that year, it was bunched together because the division was aggressively mediocre, with the Broncos winning the division via a three-way tiebreaker at 8-8 and the Chiefs bringing up the rear at 7-9.

It’s different now. The teams are packed closely — but that’s because they’re strong, particularly at quarterback. What separated the Broncos and placed them at the bottom with a 2-10 divisional record in the 2020 and 2021 seasons was what they didn’t have under center: a “top-shelf” quarterback. That was a point Vic Fangio made clear in his final press conference as a Broncos head coach.

Vic Fangio’s answer to my question about what separates the other teams in the AFC West from the Broncos.

He opened by saying, “Those other three teams have top-shelf quarterbacks, which is obvious to everybody."pic.twitter.com/MXPq2Mknfo

— Andrew Mason (@MaseDenver) January 9, 2022

Now those Broncos will play a last-place slate with a first-rate quarterback. And that could make all the difference, giving them a chance to soar from worst to first.