BRONCOS

2022 FPI ratings say Broncos are a field goal better than average opponent

May 17, 2022, 11:32 AM
Nathaniel Hackett...
(Photo by RJ Sangosti/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images)
(Photo by RJ Sangosti/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images)

One of the more in depth football analytics models has released its 2022 rankings.

The Football Power Index, developed by ESPN, is a predictive rating system that measures team strength and uses it to forecast game and season results.

So where do the Denver Broncos check in? Glad you asked.

By this metric, the Broncos are predicted to beat an average NFL opponent by 3.3 points per game on a neutral field. Of course, Denver will only play one neutral site game this year vs. the Jaguars in London in Week 8, and hopefully a second if they reach the Super Bowl in February.

But there’s a lot to digest here and sort out. This metric figures to be more accurate than any NFL Power Rankings, so it should be taken seriously. However, the Bengals ranked 16th at just +1.1 points per game is surprising given they won the AFC a year ago. And the 49ers checking in at No. 24 at -6.1 points per game is downright shocking, considering they nearly played in the Super Bowl last season.

Clearly there’s some uncertainty Cincinnati can repeat its magical season from 2021 and San Francisco’s QB situation is murky at best. The Niners also lost two key defenders to Denver in D.J. Jones and K’Waun Williams.

The Broncos will undoubtedly be better this season thanks to the major addition of Russell Wilson and a head coaching upgrade in Nathaniel Hackett. They also have a very easy schedule at the start of the season based on the new FPI rankings, but a brutal finish down the stretch.

Wow. That highlights the necessity for the Broncos to get off to a fast start, because closing with the Chiefs twice, Ravens, Cardinals, Rams and Chargers is a gauntlet of a finish.

Does FPI determine who wins on a weekly basis? No, but it’s another indicator the Broncos have high expectations in 2022 and the computers agree. The roster has been assembled brilliantly by GM George Paton and even his predecessor John Elway — now it’s time for Denver to go prove it on the field.
***

Broncos

Marlin Briscoe...
Andrew Mason

Remembering Marlin Briscoe: A legend who was ahead of his time

Briscoe, who died June 27, aged 76, became the first Black quarterback in modern pro football when he started for the Broncos in 1968.
13 hours ago
DENVER, COLORADO - NOVEMBER 28: Javonte Williams #33 of the Denver Broncos celebrates scoring a tou...
Cecil Lammey

Mile High Monday: Javonte Williams can make the second-year leap

The Broncos running back should have a big season in year No. 2, Arch Manning makes his decision and the Avalanche finish off Mission 16W
2 days ago
Landeskog with the Stanley Cup...
Andrew Mason

How Denver’s other teams celebrated the Avalanche’s Stanley Cup

Here's how Denver's teams and players reacted after the Avalanche finished off the Tampa Bay Lightning on Sunday night:
2 days ago
Ask Mase...
Andrew Mason

Ask Mase: How the Manning era can provide a guide for the Wilson years

At some point in the near future, the Broncos will have a higher percentage of their cap tied up in QB than ever before. But Peyton Manning's years offer a guide.
2 days ago
Baron Browning...
Andrew Mason

A player to know at Broncos training camp: Baron Browning

He moved from inside linebacker to edge rusher this spring. But he's caught the eyes of teammates like Bradley Chubb.
4 days ago
Russell Wilson...
Cecil Lammey

Russell Wilson’s presence makes the Broncos defense better

Ejiro Evero is putting together a defense that will be an improvement over recent years, in part because of the quarterback they'll face every day
4 days ago
2022 FPI ratings say Broncos are a field goal better than average opponent