Is Broncos tight end Greg Dulcich a fantasy sleeper in 2022?

I’m always thinking about fantasy football. It’s my job, but it’s still my passion as well since I started playing in 1993.

My favorite thing about fantasy football and scouting talent in each year’s draft class are discovering sleepers. I remember writing about Julius Thomas for the New York Times when nobody knew who he was. It took some time, but he eventually was a fantasy stud for the Broncos in 2013 and 2014.

The Denver Broncos added a playmaking tight end when they selected UCLA’s Greg Dulcich in the third round of the 2022 NFL Draft. It usually takes some time, like it did with Thomas, for tight ends to make an impact in the NFL. However, his familiarity with pro concepts with the Bruins I think could speed his transition to the pro game. That’s something he talked about after rookie minicamp practices last Friday.

“Yeah. We were running pro-style stuff at UCLA. There are a lot of similar concepts that I picked up, but there is some new stuff that I’m excited to run.” Dulcich said.

Is Dulcich a fantasy sleeper in 2022? Let’s take a look.

***

Misconception about Wilson

When the Broncos made the trade for Wilson, I looked over his stats to starting tight ends and was not blown away with the data. I was looking at single players and their statistical production each year, and the numbers weren’t great. Not only are the Seattle Seahawks a run-heavy team, but it also seemed like they de-emphasized the tight end position.

I was looking at the wrong numbers. Instead of looking at individual players, I should have looked at position totals – a much more revealing set of numbers. The starters for the Seahawks over the years, guys like Will Dissly and even dating back to Jimmy Graham didn’t play full seasons as injuries hit the position hard. That’s why individual stats are deceiving because these starters couldn’t do as much as others because they missed significant time due to injury.

Our very own Shawn Drotar investigated the target structure for Wilson, and he found that on average (2015-21) the veteran quarterback leaned on his No. 1 tight end as the third option in the passing game. The average targets per year for the starting tight end were 67 on the season with a high of 98 targets in 2017. That season was the only season in Wilson’s career when he was top-10 in passing attempts in the league. It’s also the same season Wilson led the NFL in touchdown passes (34).

Dulcich knows he must earn the trust of Wilson. He’s going to work on that while also building the trust of the coaching staff.

“Being a walk on, you have to show that you can be trusted, that you know everything and that you’re going to go out and play hard. I tried to do that today, and that’s how I’m going to carry myself. I want to do whatever the team asks me to do and [for them to] know they can trust me to do whatever.” Dulcich said.

***

Mismatch Nightmare

There is no doubt that Dulcich creates mismatches every time he’s on the football field. Dulcich is too big for safeties to cover, and he’s certainly too fast for linebackers to cover. On film, Dulcich’s speed and ability to attack all three levels of the defense was evident. During rookie minicamp on Friday, I immediately was impressed by his gait on field level.

Dulcich has an extra gear with the football in his hands. I like the way he can get to stop speed in a hurry, and his running style is effortless. However, what makes him even more dangerous is his ability to snare the football in stride without losing speed. Dulcich does a good job of snatching the ball out of the air with arms extended away from his body. This makes it difficult for defenders to break up the pass if they’re close to the ball.
The rookie knows he has things to work on – and he does. However, with the way the team will use him as an “F” tight end, I think any blemishes to his game can be masked.

“I think there is a lot to work on—pass game, showing some more wiggle and learning how coverages are going to played in the NFL. It’s going to be a lot different than college. [It’s] the run game, too, and being more explosive and coming off the ball. You probably saw in the drills today that it was a big emphasis for us tight ends. I think we handled it really well.” Dulcich said.

***

Value TE2 with Upside

Looking over how Wilson can use the tight end, the other weapons on the roster and Dulcich’s skill set I believe the rookie can be a TE2 with upside for Fantasy GMs this season. At this time, Dulcich has a current ADP of TE45 in non-PPR leagues with most Fantasy GMs predicting Albert Okwuegbunam as the lead tight end in Denver.

We’ll have to watch this competition in training camp, and there’s a chance Okwuegbunam could hold off Dulich at the start of the regular season. However, by the end of the year – when the fantasy playoffs are being held – Dulcich could be the starter and a favorite target of Wilson. Either he will beat out Okwuegbunam through the season, or Okwuegbunam will get banged up again – a problem for him throughout his football career. That means Dulcich is a value for where he’s currently getting drafted as a TE4.

In Denver leagues, especially in August, Dulcich will be drafted higher than he should be. Broncos fans are excited, and if he makes one big catch in training camp or the preseason then the local hype around him will be out of control. However, in leagues where you play against people from across the country I think Dulcich will be there with your last pick.

I love lottery ticket picks. Dulcich has speed, and he’s with a quarterback who loves to strike with a deep pass. That means big plays could abound for the rookie tight end once he gets up to speed in the NFL. He had six plays over 30 yards last year with the Bruins, and that was on a team that featured him in the offense (Dulcich led all Pac-12 tight ends in receptions with 725 yards). If/when he’s the Broncos starter, Dulcich can produce at a fantasy relevant level and be a player you consistently consider each week in your lineup.

***

Follow @CecilLammey