When evaluating quarterbacks, interceptions are an overrated stat
Jan 7, 2022, 2:26 PM
When it comes to evaluating Drew Lock’s full season as the Broncos starter, one stat always gets highlighted. “He led the NFL in interceptions,” the doubters lament.
While technically that’s true, it sounds a lot worse than it is. For one thing, he threw 15 interceptions in 2020; that’s the lowest total by the league leader in a decade.
But beyond that, it fails to grasp what’s important in today’s NFL. Despite what Vic Fangio and the Broncos coaching staff want everyone to believe, taking care of the football isn’t the No. 1 goal of the quarterback.
A look at the 2021 standings and statistics bear this out. These are some of the league leaders in interceptions this season:
15 – Matthew Stafford (12-4) and Josh Allen (10-6)
14 – Ryan Tannehill (11-5), Joe Burrow (10-6), Justin Herbert (9-7), Derek Carr (9-7)
13 – Patrick Mahomes (11-4)
12 – Tom Brady (12-4), Mac Jones (10-6)
Clearly, throwing interceptions doesn’t prevent a quarterback from helping his team win. Protecting the ball, however, doesn’t necessarily result in W’s.
These are some of the best quarterbacks in the NFL at protecting the football:
8 – Jared Goff (2-10-1)
7 – Teddy Bridgewater (7-7), Kirk Cousins (7-8), Daniel Jones (4-7)
Of course, there are some outliers. Aaron Rodgers (13-2) has just thrown just four interceptions and Carson Wentz (9-7) has only tossed six picks, while Trevor Lawrence (2-14) leads the league with 17 INTs.
The point, however, is that it’s not automatic that protecting the ball is what wins games. The numbers actually show that touchdowns are what wins games, not protecting the football and ending drives with kicks.
The stats say it’s worth taking risks of turnovers to try and put the ball in the end zone. Here are the quarterback leaders in touchdowns (combining passing and rushing):
42 – Tom Brady
40 – Josh Allen
38 – Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Justin Herbert
37 – Patrick Mahomes
36 – Joe Burrow
33 – Dak Prescott
31 – Kirk Cousins
28 – Kyler Murray
27 – Carson Wentz
26 – Jalen Hurts
24 – Ryan Tannehill
Of that group, only Cousins has a losing record; he’s 7-8. The others are all in the playoffs or playing for the playoffs in Week 18.
Contrast that with the next group of quarterbacks in total touchdowns:
23 – Russell Wilson
22 – Jimmy Garoppolo, Ben Roethlisberger
21 – Derek Carr, Taylor Heincke, Daniel Jones
20 – Matt Ryan, Teddy Bridgewater, Lamar Jackson
18 – Baker Mayfield, Tua Tagovailoa
17 – Jared Goff
15 – Jameis Winston
13 – Davis Mills
12 – Trevor Lawrence, Mac Jones, Sam Darnold, Zach Wilson
In this group, only six of the 18 quarterbacks have winning records. That includes Jackson and Winston, both of whom missed major time due to injuries.
What’s the takeaway?
It’s not about protecting the ball. It’s not about conservative football. It’s about putting the ball in the end zone.
As the Broncos look to improve at quarterback, that’s something they need to keep in mind. Playing it “safe” isn’t the way to win.
