The Broncos game plan for beating the Chiefs in Week 13
Dec 4, 2021, 4:04 PM
The Denver Broncos are doing something they haven’t done in years – they are playing important football in the month of December. After defeating the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 12, they travel to play against the AFC West leading Kansas City Chiefs on “Sunday Night Football.”
This is going to be a tough game for the Broncos to win. They do have a chance because of the talent they have on both sides of the ball. Not everyone is healthy, but the Broncos do not lack the talent they used to. However, they do have a coaching staff that leaves a lot to be desired. If the correct game is called by head coach Vic Fangio and offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur, the Broncos could shock the world in Week 13.
How will the Broncos attack the Chiefs on both sides of the ball? Let’s take a look.
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When the Broncos Run the Ball
What does it look like if Javonte Williams was the starting running back for the Broncos? We get to see that this week against the Chiefs with Melvin Gordon out with hip and shoulder injuries.
Williams has been doing great things with the football on a weekly basis. He’s the leading rusher in the NFL – for players who don’t start. Now, he gets his chance to shine against a Chiefs defense that ranks No. 9 in the league against the run (for teams who have played 11 games). It’s a tough matchup, but Williams is built for the task.
He’s a powerful runner who does not go down without a fight. Williams has a blend of power and speed that makes him an impact player for the Broncos offense. He can soften up the Chiefs defense up the middle, and if the Broncos have a late lead Williams can be the “closer” for them and grind out the clock.
Javonte Williams when he sees Tyrann Mathieu and Daniel Sorensen Sunday night. pic.twitter.com/sqQ6sqBoQj
— ᴄᴀᴍᴇʀᴏɴ ᴘᴀʀᴋᴇʀ (@CameronParkerPO) December 3, 2021
I love Williams, but I am tempering expectations based on how tough the Chiefs are against the run. I have him projected for 100 all-purpose yards and a touchdown. That’s a good game, but that’s not a spectacular performance. It all comes down to whether or not the Broncos can stay in this game and not let the Chiefs get a big lead.
The Chiefs are on a four-game win streak. During that time, they’ve faced (and shut down) Devontae Booker (Giants), Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon (Packers, with Jordan Love at quarterback), Josh Jacobs (Raiders) and Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys). There is something interesting film during these contests which reveal some cracks in the Chiefs run defense. Can the Broncos expose those cracks? Can they have the stomach to keep running the ball? That all comes down to the game that Shurmur calls. It’s my lack of confidence in Shurmur that has me concerned.
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When the Broncos Pass the Ball
The Chiefs get after the quarterback, so Teddy Bridgewater is not going to have much time to throw the ball. Shurmur must call screen passes, Texas routes and quick outs to get rid of the ball quickly for his quarterback. Bridgewater loves to work the short-to-medium routes, and this game sets up for him to do that.
Williams is dangerous as a receiver out of the backfield as we saw last week against the Chargers. However, it’s past time to get Courtland Sutton more involved. He hasn’t had a big game since Week 6, but his size and run-after-the-catch ability will be tough for the Chiefs to stop or slow down. The same goes for Tim Patrick and his similar skill set.
Jerry Jeudy can get open against any one-on-one coverage, and he certainly has flashed in a big way when running after the catch. Using his speed and route-running ability on a quick slant would make a lot of sense.
The Chiefs give it up to the tight end position regularly, again shot-to-intermediate routes, so the Broncos should feature Noah Fant and Albert Okwuegbunam. Both tight ends have speed and are difficult for linebackers or safeties to match up against. Fant is more of a “catch and fall down” guy, but in this game he needs to keep his feet and fight for extra yards. Okwuegbunam is much tougher after the catch, and he’s a bit faster than Fant as well. Both are dangerous weapons that can and should be used.
Free Javonte Williams pic.twitter.com/Pa4ZMhuenY
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 30, 2021
YAC is the key for the Broncos in Week 13. It doesn’t matter if that comes from Williams, Sutton, Patrick, Jeudy, Fant, Okwuegbunam, etc. The key is, turn short passes into long gains. Shurmur has to call a good game for this contest to go in the Broncos favor. They can even use the short passing game to supplement the rushing attack if the ground game can’t get going in Week 13.
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When the Chiefs Run the Ball
The Chiefs don’t feature a strong rushing attack despite having a first-round running back, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, as their starter. Edwards-Helaire is a talented back with stop-start ability that few in the league possess. He’s been banged up this year, and that’s why the Chiefs haven’t been running the ball as effectively as they could.
That’s also not their philosophy on offense. The Chiefs are one of the most pass-happy teams in the NFL. They don’t have conviction to run the ball, but perhaps against the Broncos – and coming off their bye – they’ll do that. They rank no.2 in the NFL when it comes to yards before contact per rush (3.3 yards). That shows they block well when they do run, giving their backs plenty of space to work with.
Progressing through multiple reads, moving defenders to create opportunities. These are popular QB talking points, but elite NFL RBs do it, too. Nobody processes and moves defenders better than Clyde Edwards-Helaire. pic.twitter.com/v0tGswpwQf
— J Moyer (@JMoyerFB) November 25, 2020
Broncos defenders had better be careful if they see Edwards-Helaire in the open field. He can change direction on a dime, and Edwards-Helaire has the speed to turn on the jets and gash a defense quickly.
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When the Chiefs Pass the Ball
As I highlighted in my fantasy article earlier this week on DenverFan.com, the key for giving yourself the best chance to win is slow down Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill. So, who do you do that? Well, it’s incredibly difficult and most teams can’t do that. However, in the four losses for the Chiefs this year Hill was never the leading receiver and did not score a touchdown.
You can slow down Hill by playing “Umbrella” coverage and making him run through multiple zones. Hill has speed, and they run vertical routes at an angle so Hill can go between defenders and essentially give himself more room to run. Defenders watching the quarterback can fall asleep when Hill goes through, and that leads to big plays for Kansas City. Umbrella coverage puts a “roof” on the field and keeps everything in front of the last line of defense.
It’s not perfect, but it’s the best way to achieve what you need to against the Chiefs. However, there is a weakness for Umbrella coverage – and the Chiefs can exploit that early and often.
Giving teams underneath routes means that running backs and tight ends can catch a ton of passes. The Chiefs, specifically quarterback Patrick Mahomes, love the big play and will flip the field – or score – in the blink of an eye. They do not like, or aren’t as good at, matriculating the ball down the field.
Against the Broncos, if they use Umbrella coverage, tight end Travis Kelce could go off. The underneath routes are going to be there for him, and he’s already a superstar who is nearly impossible to match up against. He won’t blaze down the field like Hill, but Kelce can get you for a big play and has regularly torched the Broncos.
Tyreek Hill’s first game against Denver:
– Return TD ✅
– Rushing TD ✅
– Reception TD as time expires ✅Tyreek has never lost to the Broncos.
pic.twitter.com/4cS5VprXWn— CHIEFS HIGHLIGHTS (@ChiefHighlights) November 29, 2021
It sounds odd to some, but Kelce having a big game isn’t the worst thing to happen to you when playing the Chiefs. So long as Hill doesn’t get one of those back-breaking plays, the Broncos can hang around and force the Chiefs to have longer drives. That uses up the time of possession and actually works against Kansas City.
If they have to work harder to score, they may score less – they should score less. The Broncos know this and know this is the magic combination to take down a foe that is among the best in the game.
