NFL teams are putting way too much stock in an anomaly of a season
Apr 28, 2021, 6:39 AM
The year 2020 wasn’t normal.
Your gym closed. You had to wear a mask to the grocery store. You couldn’t hug your grandma. And NFL quarterbacks had their best year ever.
That’s right, while we all sat inside, gorging ourselves on bread and Twitter, NFL QBs combined for the most touchdown passes in league history. They also posted the highest completion percentage in NFL history and threw the fewest interceptions in NFL history.
Are the two related?
Before we get into that, check this stat out: With all of that scoring going on, defenses somehow missed fewer tackles. Think about that. Most points ever. Most touchdowns ever. But fewer missed tackles? Do you realize what this means?
The NFLPA calls this “improved quality of play” and cites it as a reason why OTAs are unnecessary. But what I see when I read those stats — more touchdowns and fewer missed tackles — is that the defensive players weren’t even close enough on the play to miss the tackle. It means that dudes were out there running free. They were wide open, like I-25 during lockdown.
That’s not quality of play. That’s a glitch in the system.
Everyone who watched the 2020 season saw this imbalance. But instead of questioning it, they have used it to justify an even more ridiculous obsession with the quarterback. (As if it weren’t bad enough already.)
“Yep, look at the numbers, the quarterback is obviously more important than ever. We need a new one, stat!”
But quarterback play doesn’t just jump like that — not unless there was some condition that favored the offense, something that loaded the dice in 2020 and made it seem like the quarterback was better than he actually is. It’s almost as if they were playing in empty stadiums!
Oh, yeah. They were.
The one position most affected by a hostile crowd got to play the entire season without facing one.
“So, you’re saying I can just talk to my guys out here? Tell them exactly what to do and they can hear everything I say? And I can change the play as much as I want? And I can hear the defensive calls and the defensive coaches, too? And I don’t have anyone calling me names and insulting my family every time I walk to the sidelines? And I can also work the snap count on the road?”
“Yep.”
“This is going to be fun!”
And it was fun — for quarterbacks*.
(*Quarterbacks not named Drew Lock.)
But it wasn’t just NFL quarterbacks who received the COVID bump. BYU’s Zach Wilson — everyone’s presumptive No. 2 overall pick in Thursday’s draft – had a very pedestrian 2019, when there were actual humans in the stands. In 2020, in front of cardboard cutouts, he exploded.
Mac Jones was pretty average in 2019, too, when people came to watch him play. But in 2020, with crowd sizes reduced by 80 percent and buoyed by the best roster in college football, he exploded.
Same might be said for Josh Allen. And Baker Mayfield.
And all of the other QB darlings of 2020 who made considerable jumps in precision. Their strong play should be commended, sure, but the question should also be asked, especially if you are planning on drafting a quarterback — why didn’t they do that with fans in the stands?
Can Mac Jones deal with Von Miller coming off the edge before his tackle gets out of his stance? Can Zach Wilson block out the vicious taunting that will greet him every time he comes back to the sideline? And can Trey Lance execute a two-minute drive underneath a deafening hail of crowd noise?
If you’re not sure of the answer, and you decide to take the 2020 offensive explosion with the grain salt that serious analysis requires, then you might want to pass on a COVID pony and draft a linebacker instead.
Now go hug your grandma.
