It would be a “win-win” scenario if Broncos trade up to No. 4
Apr 27, 2021, 12:17 PM
Could a trade between the Denver Broncos and Atlanta Falcons be a winning situation for both teams?
NFL Network’s Cynthia Frelund believes so.
It's draft week! And with trade winds blowing through the rumor mill, @cfrelund provides four hypothetical first-round deals that'd be win-win for both parties involvedhttps://t.co/GJXcFQNc89 pic.twitter.com/LhFpsWs4S1
— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) April 26, 2021
In a recent article, Frelund put together four potential deals involving first-round picks with the Broncos trade coming in at the top spot.
Denver would receive the No. 4 pick in this year’s draft while Atlanta would receive a 2021 first-round pick (No. 9) and 2021 second-round pick (No. 40).
But why would this work well for the Broncos?
“The opportunity to select QB4 in this draft for the cost of a second-round pick — and not necessarily be forced to immediately start the rookie QB — is a luxury,” Frelund wrote. “The Broncos are closer than it might seem to being postseason contenders. If I play with the models a little to analyze the scenario of each QB starting 13 games — and Drew Lock starting four, as opposed to all 17 — the win share increase is about 0.8 games. One more full win could mean the difference between getting a postseason bid and spending January on the couch.”
The Falcons “hold the keys” in this draft because they have a variety of directions they can go.
With the fourth overall pick they could draft a future replacement for quarterback Matt Ryan or draft the best tight end in Kyle Pitts.
New general manager Terry Fontenot has options. So why trade down with the Broncos?
“With such a move, the odds of increasing the Falcons’ defensive production potential shifts dramatically,” Frelund wrote. “For example, my availability probability model shows that selection No. 9 has a 93 percent chance of offering my model’s top corner: Patrick Surtain II, who’s being widely mocked to Dallas at No. 10. Selection Nos. 35 and 40 both figure to provide enticing pass-rushing options, and my model would suggest Atlanta doubling down in this area if the team were to execute this deal.”
According to Frelund’s models, Trey Lance and Mac Jones are the two top-tier quarterbacks with the highest probability of being available at No. 4.