BRONCOS

The tea leaves suggest that the Broncos might be tanking in 2021

Mar 4, 2021, 2:05 PM | Updated: Mar 5, 2021, 4:12 pm

The annual press conference that NFL teams hold before the start of the new league year – which coincides with the start of free agency – is always a semi-comical dance to observe. The media asks questions, trying to garner some insight into the team’s plans. The team’s general manager and head coach provide answers, while trying not to provide any clues into their plans.

Such was the case on Thursday when George Paton and Vic Fangio chatted with the Denver media. They artfully sidestepped all the questions about what they’ll do in free agency, thoughts about the No. 9 overall pick and next steps with some long-time Broncos.

It was a textbook example of saying a lot without actually saying anything. For the most part.

Paton didn’t provide one nugget that offered a glimpse into the team’s philosophy in the coming weeks. And reading between the lines, it’s not an encouraging sign.

“You never want to go crazy in free agency,” the Broncos new general manager said. “You don’t want to build your team in free agency.”

While that’s probably true over the long haul, it flies in the face of the groundwork that has been laid so far this offseason. By cutting veterans such as A.J. Bouye and Jurrell Casey, Denver freed up a lot of salary cap space. With nearly $48 million of room to work with, according to Spotrac.com, it was assumed that Paton would use those dollars to aggressively pursue free agents to fill some of the team’s biggest needs.

Now, that might not be the case. The general manager made it sound like the Broncos won’t be making much of a splash in free agency.

That could be a sign that Denver is going down a path that few expected. Not only are they rebuilding, they may be tanking.

If they are, it will become clearer in the coming days. Two big decisions will provide an answer.

Justin Simmons is an unrestricted free agent. It’ll take a big contract, which will include a hefty signing bonus, in order to sign him long-term. The Broncos might not have the money to make that happen. As a result, they might be forced to put the franchise tag on him, which means they won’t have to pay him any money until the regular season.

That’s a red flag. There aren’t many “football reasons” not to sign Simmons, who has turned into an All-Pro safety the past two seasons. There are, however, plenty of economic ones.

Same goes for Von Miller. He’s owed $7 million before the start of the league year on March 17, if the Broncos pull the trigger on the team option for the final year of his contract. Then, he’ll be owed another $11 million during the season. That’s a lot of money for a guy who missed all of last season with an injury.

If the Broncos release the former Super Bowl MVP, it’ll be viewed as a shrewd move. Miller is expensive and a little risky, especially when you add in his potential legal issues. So freeing up $18 million in cap space makes a lot of sense.

But not if they don’t put that cap space to use. And based on what Paton said on Thursday, it doesn’t sound like they will.

If the Broncos aren’t willing to write big checks right now to Simmons and Miller, while also not putting the $48 to $66 million in cap space to use, it should sound alarms. It’s a sign that the team isn’t in it to win it in 2021.

There’s a good reason for that being the case. After all, the Broncos suffered a huge economic hit in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

With no fans in the stands, the franchise lost millions of dollars in revenue. For the sake of easy math, assume the 75,000 fans in attendance for each of the team’s 10 homes games spends and average of $100 for a ticket. That’s $75 million that didn’t come into the coffers. Throw in concessions, parking and other at-stadium revenue, and the Broncos easily could’ve missed out on $100 million.

That makes it tough to write seven- or eight-figure checks. There simply might not be the funds.

While Paton’s comments about free agency provided a clue that this might be the case, the biggest hint came at the end of the season. Coming off of a 5-11 campaign in which the Broncos were blown out on multiple occasions and had glaring gaffes on a weekly basis, the team didn’t make a single coaching change.

Head coach Vic Fangio was retained. As was offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur. Ed Donatell will return to run the defense. Even Tom McMahon will be back as the special teams coordinator.

It begged a simple question: How was no one held accountable for the Broncos poor play in 2020?

Well, the answer might be a simple one. If the Broncos are planning to go cheap in 2021, why bring in a new head coach and staff to endure that process? It makes more sense to ride it out with the current regime, since they’re getting paid either way, and let them have to deal with a stripped-down roster.

If Fangio and Co. somehow make the most of it, then Denver will have stumbled upon some coaching gems. If they don’t, then it’ll be easier to move on after the season.

Heading into 2022, the Broncos will have restocked the coffers, added another high draft choice and brought in a coaching staff handpicked by Paton. It’s a no-lose proposition, as the general manager essentially audits his first season on the job.

That might not be what Broncos Country wants to hear. But for those listening closely on Thursday, that’s what the tea leaves are suggesting is the team’s plan in 2021.

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The tea leaves suggest that the Broncos might be tanking in 2021