Clayton: A franchise tag on Simmons makes economic sense for Broncos
Feb 24, 2021, 2:27 PM | Updated: Mar 3, 2021, 10:05 am
The two-week window for NFL franchise and transition tags began Tuesday and the Denver Broncos will most likely use one.
Since 2011, the Broncos have been tied for third in terms of franchise tags used. The Kansas City Chiefs have utilized it seven times during that time, the Dallas Cowboys six, and the Broncos, Miami Dolphins and Pittsburgh Steelers each with five.
The Broncos might consider using a tag this year on Shelby Harris. But all signs point for them using it on safety Justin Simmons for the second time in two years.
Ideally, they’d prefer getting a long-term deal with Simmons and they have time to negotiate. But, as it turns out, the second franchise tag for Simmons will come in for less than what he could get in free agency.
Top safeties are making $14.5 million to $14.75 million per year. Simmons might not set the new market, but he certainly can get more than $14 million a year in free agency.
Simmons made $11.441 million as a franchise player last year. He would make $13.729 million this year. That means the Broncos can keep him for two years at a little more than $12.5 million a year, which is affordable.
The long-term concern is whether they can keep him in the organization past the 2021 season. Since 2011, there have been 99 franchise or transition tags. But in the case of 55 tagged players, they didn’t get long-term deals and moved on to other teams.
That means the Broncos would only have a 45 percent chance of keeping Simmons. The cap should increase significantly in 2022, so Simmons might be able to get more than $15 million per year in free agency next year.
Technically, the Broncos could franchise him a third time, but that won’t happen. A third franchise tag for a non-quarterback would be at the quarterback number, This year, the quarterback tag number is $24.83 million this year; that’s at a salary cap that could be as low as $180 million. The quarterback tag number is down 7.4 percent from 2020 when it was at $26.82 million.
If you are wondering about Harris, the tag number for him in 2021 would be around $14.5 million. That’s probably too much for Denver to commit.
All teams will have to watch every dollar with the decreased salary cap. To be able to keep Simmons at $13.729 million make more sense. And the Broncos would have time to see if they can get a long-term deal for Harris.
Simmons could get a long-team deal with the Broncos, but not if nothing is done by July 15. After July 15, the tagged player can only be on a one-year deal. Last year, there were 15 tagged players, and only two ended up with long-term deals.
What ends up happening is that both sides wait until a few days before July 15 to get a long-term contract. Negotiations are so often driven by deadlines, and so a long-term deal could be the same for Simmons.
Regardless, it doesn’t appear the Broncos will lose Simmons this year.