Expect the Nuggets to be busy, while the Avs stand pat
May 22, 2019, 5:43 AM | Updated: 4:25 pm
On the surface, both franchises seem to have a lot in common. Each of them advanced to the second round of the playoffs, before ultimately falling in a decisive Game 7. Each of them has a young core, highlighted by an MVP-caliber superstar. And each of them appears to be entering a championship window, ready to compete for supremacy in their respective conference and league.
That being the case, it would stand to reason that the franchises would attack the offseason in a similar fashion. They’d do what they needed to do in order to keep their strong foundations in place, rid themselves of any unnecessary baggage and then fill in whatever roster holes remain.
It’s that last step that is the big one, however. And it’s where the Avalanche and Nuggets seem to diverge when it comes to preparing for their 2019-20 seasons.
There’s no doubt that both franchises will keep their core players in place, as well as the crucial supporting case. And inevitably, each will cast off few expendable pieces, as that’s the nature of professional sports. But they both won’t push all of their chips into the middle of the table in an attempt to advance further next season.
At least that’s the way the tea leaves read.
During his final press conference of the season, held right after the Avs were eliminated by the Sharks, Joe Sakic was cautious when explaining his team’s plans in free agency.
“There are a few players that we want to talk to if they become available,” the general manager and executive vice president offered. “We’ll be more aggressive this year with that, but keep in mind if it doesn’t work out for the players that we want to talk to, we’re not just going to spend on anybody.”
Contrast that to Tim Connelly yesterday, when he faced the media for the first time since the Nuggets were ousted by the Trail Blazers.
“I think it will be fascinating when we make those calls,” Connelly said about dialing up free agents during the offseason. “If the answer is, ‘It’s about winning,’ and they don’t want to talk to us, I think it’s a disingenuous answer.”
The difference is subtle, but it’s there. Sakic is laying the groundwork for a quiet offseason by throwing out a giant caveat, while Connelly is essentially declaring to NBA stars that they have the chance to win a championship by coming to Denver.
That news probably ticks off one fan base, and excites another, but it makes total sense. The current state of each team, as well as their respective leagues, suggests that each franchise is taking a prudent course of action.
Up front, the Avs are stacked. Nathan MacKinnon is a star player, Gabriel Landeskog is not far behind and Mikko Rantanen is trending in that direction; so keeping Rantanen in place, as the winger is a restricted free agent is priority No. 1 for Sakic. That solidifies the Avalanche’s top line for years to come.
In net, Colorado is also in good shape. Late in the season, Phillip Grubauer emerged as a legit No. 1 goaltender, which will make it easy for the organization to part ways with the ever-frustrating Semyon Varlamov before next season. Letting Varly depart as an unrestricted free agent, and replacing him with a journeyman backup, is the most-likely plan.
The big need is defensemen, but Sakic and Company already have a lot of money tied up at that position. Erik Johnson is slated to earn $6 million in 2019-20, Tyson Barrie sits at $5.5 and Ian Cole will haul in $4.25. With Nikita Zadorov a restricted free agent, keeping the band together figures to be an expensive proposition. It’ll be tough to do much more than that this offseason.
As a result, it’s hard to imagine the Avs opening up the checkbook for Jake Gardiner, Erik Karlson, Tyler Myers, Anton Stralman or any of the other top defenseman slated to hit the market. They’re more likely to count on their current quartet of high-priced players to step up.
So unless Colorado shells out $10 million or more for Artemi Panarin or Jeff Skinner, which would make either one the highest paid Avalanche player by a wide margin, they aren’t going to be heavily involved in free agency. And that’s what Sakic suggested.
At the end of the day, the GM knows that his team is good enough to make the postseason as it currently stands; they can squeak in next season, just as they have the past two. And once a team is in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, anything can happen.
Would a high-priced free agent improve the Avs chances of winning a title next season? Sure, but not dramatically. So there isn’t a compelling reason to write any hefty checks. Sakic is more likely to count on his young core to continue to develop, a pair of first-round draft picks and other prospects to blossom.
On the other hand, the Nuggets are sitting in a position where they are one key addition away from competing for a title. The nucleus of Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Gary Harris is solid, and will be for years to come, while a restructured deal for Paul Millsap would make the veteran the cornerstone of a great supporting crew. But Denver needs one more dynamic piece to push them over the top.
That’s why Connelly laid out the challenge that he did on Tuesday. He knows that Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard or any of the other big-name free agents on the market this offseason would instantly make Denver a contender in the Western Conference, especially if the Warriors aren’t back intact next season.
Anyone who watched Golden State in Game 4 against Portland on Monday night can attest to that team being vulnerable when not at full strength. Steph Curry, Draymond Green and a bunch of guys aren’t going to consistently win in the playoffs; so if Durant and Klay Thompson depart, the race is wide open in the west.
That’s why it would make sense for the Kroenkes to spend big on the Nuggets; the investment has a better chance of paying off. The addition of Durant, Leonard or Thompson could bring a championship to Denver, as early as next season; the same can’t be said for any move the Avalanche might make.
It doesn’t take a tasseographer (a person who tells fortunes by reading tea leaves or coffee grounds) to interpret what the Pepsi Center tenants are going to do this offseason. For one, the men running each organization basically told everyone what to expect. But two, the situations in front of each franchise also provide a road map.
The Avalanche are going to stand pat. The Nuggets are going to try to go big. And both think they can make a championship run with those respective approaches.
